Cover of the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ºC

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15)[a] was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018.[1] The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries.[2] In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report.[2] The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change.[3] Its broad findings are reported as being that drastic action must be taken in limited time to avoid severe and worsening consequences.[4]

Overview

The long title of the report is "Global Warming of 1.5 °C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty".[1][5] According to an article by Phil McKenna at InsideClimate News, SR15 provides a summary of existing research on the impact that a warming of 1.5 °C (equivalent to 2.7 °F) would have on the planet and the necessary steps to limit global warming.[6]

Process

There are three IPCC working groups: Working Group I (WG I), co-chaired by Valerie Masson-Delmotte and Panmao Zhai, covers the physical science of climate change. Working Group II (WG II), co-chaired by Hans-Otto Pörtner and Debra Roberts, examines "impacts, adaptation and vulnerability". The "mitigation of climate change" is dealt with by Working Group III (WG III), co-chaired by Priyardarshi Shukla and Jim Skea.[7] The "Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories" "develops methodologies for measuring emissions and removals". There are also Technical Support Units that guide "the production of IPCC assessment reports and other products".[8]

Contributors

Researchers from 40 countries, representing 91 authors and editors contributed to the report, which includes over 6,000 scientific references.[1][9][10]

Main statements

Understanding global warming of 1.5 °C

This report says that global temperature will likely rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052 if warming continues at the current rate. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have so far contributed 0.8 °C to 1.2 °C of warming.[5] The gases which have already been emitted are unlikely to cause global temperature to rise to 1.5 °C alone, and a global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is avoidable depending on the rate of further emissions.[1] Climate-related risks associated with increasing global warming depend on geographic location, "levels of development and vulnerability", and the speed and reach of climate mitigation and climate adaptation practices.[5]

Projected climate change, potential impacts and associated risks

According to the report, with global warming of 1.5 °C there would be increased risks to "health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth."[5]

Emission pathways and system transitions consistent with 1.5 °C global warming

The report indicates that "rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure..., and industrial systems", "unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms of speed" would require "deep emissions reductions in all sectors, a wide portfolio of mitigation options and a significant upscaling of investments in those options."[5]:2

Strengthening the global response in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty

The report also states that, in order to avoid reliance on the use of large scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the decades to come, globally, we need a decline in CO2 emissions "well before 2030."[5]

Reactions

Researchers

In his 1 October 2018 opening statement at the 48th Session held in Incheon, Korea, Hoesung Lee, who has been Chair of the IPCC since 6 October 2015,[11] described this IPCC meeting as "one of the most important" in its history.[12][3] Debra Roberts, IPCC contributor called it the "largest clarion bell from the science community". Roberts hopes "it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency."[13]

In a CBC interview, Paul Romer was asked if the Nobel Prize in economic sciences that he and William Nordhaus received shortly before the SR15 was released, was timed as a message. Romer said that he was optimistic that measures will be taken in time to avert climate catastrophe. Romer compared the angst and lack of political will in imposing a carbon tax to the initial angst surrounding the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) ban and the positive impact it had on restoring the depleted ozone layer.[14][15] In giving the Nobel to Nordhaus and Romer, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences cited Nordhaus as saying "the most efficient remedy for problems caused by greenhouse gases is a global scheme of universally imposed carbon taxes".[16]

Howard J. Herzog, a senior research engineer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that carbon capture and storage technologies, except reforestation, are problematic because of their impact on the environment, health and high cost[17]. In the article there is a link to another article that refers to a study published in the scientific journal "Nature Energy". The study says that we can limit warming to 1.5 degrees without carbon capture and storage, by technological innovation and changing lifestyle.[18]

Politics

Canada

Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna acknowledged that the SR15 report would say Canada is not "on track" for 1.5 °C.[19] Canada will not be implementing new plans but it will continue to move forward on a "national price on carbon, eliminating coal-fired power plants, making homes and businesses more energy-efficient, and investing in clean technologies and renewable energy". In response to a question on the sense of urgency of the SR15 report during a 9 October interview on CBC News's Power and Politics Andrew Scheer, the Leader of the Opposition, promised that they are putting forward a "comprehensive plan to reduce CO2 without imposing a carbon tax" which Scheer said "raised costs without actually reducing emissions."[20]

European Union

According to The New York Times, the European Union indicated it might add more ambitious reform goals centered around reducing emissions.[21] On 9 October, the Council of the European Union presented their response to SR15 and their position for the Katowice Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP 24) to be held in Poland in December 2018.[22] Their environment ministers noted recent progress in legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[22][b]

India

The Centre for Science and Environment said the repercussions for developing countries such as India, would be "catastrophic" at 2 °C warming and that the impact even at 1.5 °C described in SR15 is much greater than anticipated. Crop yields would decline and poverty would increase.[23]

New Zealand

The Minister for Climate Change James Shaw said that the Report "has laid out a strong case for countries to make every effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels. ... The good news is that the IPCC's report is broadly in line with this Government's direction on climate change and it's highly relevant to the work we are doing with the Zero Carbon Bill."[24]

United States

President Donald Trump said that he had received the report, but wanted to learn more about those who "[...] drew it" before offering conclusions.[25] In an interview with ABC's "This Week" the director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, stated, "personally, I think the UN study is way too difficult," and that the authors "overestimate" the likelihood for environmental disasters.[26]

Notes

  1. ^ The full official title of the report is "Global warming of 1.5 °C: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty".[1]
  2. ^ The Council's 9 October pointed to climate change legislation such as, the "new EU 2030 renewable energy target of 32%, the new energy efficiency target of 32.5%, the reform of the EU emission trading system, the emission reduction targets in sectors falling outside the scope of ETS and the integration of land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the EU's climate and energy framework. Low-emissions and climate resilient growth is possible: The EU is continuing successfully to decouple economic growth from emissions. Between 1990 and 2016, the EU's GDP grew by 53% while total emissions fell by 22.4%. The EU's share of global greenhouse gas emissions fell from an estimated 17.3% in 1990 to 9.9% in 2012.

References

  1. ^ a b c d e Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC (Report). Incheon, South Korea: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 7 October 2018. Retrieved 7 October 2018.
  2. ^ a b Press release: Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC (PDF) (Report). Incheon, Republic of Korea: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 7 October 2018. Retrieved 7 October 2018.
  3. ^ a b Scientists, Governments Discuss Crucial IPCC Report on Climate Change, Incheon, Republic of Korea: EcoWatch, 7 October 2018, retrieved 7 October 2018
  4. ^ Bump, Philip (10 October 2018). "Trump's abdication on the new climate change report is very on-brand". The Washington Post. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  5. ^ a b c d e f Headline Statements (PDF). Global Warming of 1.5 °C an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (Report). IPCC. 8 October 2018. p. 3. Retrieved 8 October 2018.
  6. ^ McKenna, Phil (7 October 2018). "Not Just CO2: These Climate Pollutants Also Must Be Cut to Keep Global Warming to 1.5 Degrees". InsideClimate News. Retrieved 10 October 2018. A landmark report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns policymakers of the risks ahead and the changes needed to stop global warming.
  7. ^ "Election results". IPCC. nd. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  8. ^ "Interviews with authors of IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5 °C". 20 September 2018. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  9. ^ Stern, Nicholas (8 October 2019). "We must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero or face more floods". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 October 2018.
  10. ^ Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC: IPCC experts available for interviews on 8 October 2018 (PDF), Incheon, Republic of Korea: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), nd, retrieved 8 October 2018
  11. ^ "IPCC elects Hoesung Lee of Republic of Korea as Chair" (PDF). Ipccc.ch. Retrieved 9 October 2015.
  12. ^ Lee, Hoesung (1 October 2018). "Opening Statement" (PDF). IPCC. IPCC 48th Session of the IPCC. Incheon, Korea. Retrieved 8 October 2018.
  13. ^ Watts, Jonathan (8 October 2018). "We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 October 2018.
  14. ^ The 1987 Montreal Protocol banned Chlorofluorocarbon (CFO) and the ozone layer recovered by 2000.
  15. ^ "Nobel Prize-winning economist says carbon taxes are the solution to climate change". CBC News. 8 October 2018. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  16. ^ "The Latest: Nordhaus predicts US will accept climate science". AP. 8 October 2018. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  17. ^ Herzog, Howard J. (9 October 2018). "Why We Can't Reverse Climate Change With 'Negative Emissions' Technologies". Ecowatch. Retrieved 12 October 2018.
  18. ^ Rosane, Olivia (5 June 2018). "Paris Climate Goals Can Be Reached Without Carbon Capture Tech, Landmark Study Finds". Ecowatch. Retrieved 12 October 2018.
  19. ^ Rabson, Mia (7 October 2018). "UN climate change report calls for 'unprecedented changes' in society". Ottawa, ON. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  20. ^ Maloney, Ryan (10 October 2018). "Andrew Scheer on India, climate change Climate Plan 'Very Soon'". Power and Politics. CBC. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  21. ^ Sengupta, Somini (9 October 2018). "The Climate Outlook Is Dire. So, What's Next?". The New York Times. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  22. ^ a b "Climate change: Council adopts conclusions". 9 October 2018. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  23. ^ "IPCC report: India to be highly impacted says Centre for Science and Environment". The Economic Times. 8 October 2018. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  24. ^ Shaw, James (8 October 2018). "International global warming report lays out the critical challenge". The official website of the New Zealand Government. Retrieved 14 October 2018.
  25. ^ Bump, Philip (10 October 2018). "Trump's abdication on the new climate change report is very on-brand". The Washington Post. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  26. ^ Miller, Hayley (14 October 2018). "Trump's Top Economic Aide On Dire UN Climate Change Report: No Need To 'Panic'". Huffington Post. Retrieved 14 October 2018.